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Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate Impact on US Recession December 2026

Unemployment Rate Impact on US Recession December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$3 vol.

About this market

Traders price 2.2 at 25%.

The market has $3 in volume across 1 trade; the most recent was on Oct 3, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 8, 2027. The result is confirmed by Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This contract asks whether the United States economy will enter a recession by the end of a specified quarter and year, conditional on the US Unemployment Rate exceeding a specified percentage in a given month and year. For purposes of the Contract, the United States economy enters a recession when there are two consecutive negative readings for the Final Reading of quarter-over-quarter US Real GDP.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • 2.2Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 2.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?” is yes.
  • 3.2Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 3.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?” is yes.
  • 4.2Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 4.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?” is yes.
  • 5.2Resolves Yes if the answer to “If the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 5.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?” is yes.

Result confirmed by Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Trading opened
Sep 23, 2026
Trading closes
Jan 8, 2027
Expected result
Dec 23, 2027
Expected payout
Dec 23, 2027

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.