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Economic Indicators

Hormuz Normalization Impact on US Gasoline Prices April 1 2027

Hormuz Normalization Impact on US Gasoline Prices 2027 · Apr 1, 2027 · Trading open

$38 vol.

About this market

Traders price Above 3.25 at 55%, ahead of Above 4.25 at 30%.

The market has $38 in volume across 7 trades; the most recent was on Oct 2, 2026.

Trading closes on Apr 6, 2027. The result is confirmed by IMF PortWatch and US Energy Information Administration.

This contract asks whether US regular gasoline prices will exceed a specified price for a specified week, conditional on traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before a specified date. Traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal when the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit counts exceeds 60.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 3.25Resolves Yes if the answer to “If traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $3.25 for the week ending June 29, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 4.25Resolves Yes if the answer to “If traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $4.25 for the week ending June 29, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 3.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “If traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $3.5 for the week ending June 29, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 3.75Resolves Yes if the answer to “If traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $3.75 for the week ending June 29, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 4Resolves Yes if the answer to “If traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $4 for the week ending June 29, 2027?” is yes.

Result confirmed by IMF PortWatch and US Energy Information Administration.

Trading opened
Sep 28, 2026
Trading closes
Apr 6, 2027
Expected result
Jun 30, 2027
Expected payout
Jun 30, 2027

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.