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Economic Indicators

Senate Majority Impact on US Recession November 2026

Senate Majority Impact on US Recession November 2026 · November 2026 · Trading open

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

  • DemocraticDemocratic
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    YesNo
  • RepublicanRepublican
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    YesNo

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Jan 4, 2027. The result is confirmed by United States Congress and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This contract asks whether the United States economy will enter a recession by the end of a specified quarter and year, conditional on a specified political party winning majority control of the United States Senate in the specified general election. For purposes of the Contract, the United States economy enters a recession when there are two consecutive negative readings for the Final Reading of quarter-over-quarter US Real GDP.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • DemocraticResolves Yes if the answer to “If the Democratic Party wins a United States Senate majority in the 2026 general election, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?” is yes.
  • RepublicanResolves Yes if the answer to “If the Republican Party wins a United States Senate majority in the 2026 general election, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?” is yes.

Result confirmed by United States Congress and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Trading opened
Sep 28, 2026
Trading closes
Jan 4, 2027
Expected result
Dec 23, 2027
Expected payout
Dec 23, 2027

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.