Applied Aerospace & Defense

AADX · NYSE

$11.05+$0.24 (+2.22%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $10.81

AADX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 83% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 10 analysts

Average $26.26 (+137.7% upside)

Low: $23.23
Now: $11.05
High: $31.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AADX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$24.00 → $16.00	61%
RBC Capital	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$24.00 → $21.00	59%
Guggenheim	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$30.00	71%
B of A Securities	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$24.00 → $23.00	57%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$23.00 → $24.00	61%
Morgan Stanley	Jun 29, 2026	Initiates	Equal-Weight	$23.00	61%
RBC Capital	Jun 29, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$24.00	59%
Stifel	Jun 29, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$24.00	33%
B of A Securities	Jun 29, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$24.00	57%
Baird	Jun 29, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$30.00	69%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Applied Aerospace is viewed positively because its balanced exposure to defense aviation, space and launch, and C5ISR/precision strike aligns with durable Department of Defense priorities such as fleet readiness, missile replenishment, and space launch growth. It has strong revenue visibility, with $1.13B of backlog at 2Q26 and a $3.3B+ pipeline, while 88% of revenues are IP-enabled and 86% are sole/single-source, supporting pricing power and mid-20% EBITDA margins; 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $117.9M on $498.8M of revenue, or 23.6%. Management’s successful March 2026 CBI acquisition, ongoing vertical integration, and modeled mid-teens organic growth through 2028E all reinforce the case for expanding margins and improving free cash flow as execution becomes more visible.

Bear case

Applied Aerospace is viewed negatively because its revenue base is highly concentrated, with three customers representing 59% of 2025 revenue and roughly 83% tied directly or indirectly to U.S. government contracts, while about 87% came from sole or single-source positions that heighten program loss and de-sourcing risk. Its margins and cash generation also look vulnerable under a downside case of just ~$830M revenue in 2028, with adj. EBITDA margins of 21% to 23% and 2028 adj. EBITDA of $174M to $190M, especially given fixed-price exposure, specialty-material inflation, and sole-source supplier bottlenecks. Operationally, the 1.5M sq ft network across 11 facilities depends on skilled labor and capacity expansion, so any supply-chain disruption, workforce constraint, or slower contract awards could quickly compress earnings and trigger a valuation de-rating.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.