Advance Auto Parts

AAP · NYSE

$44.15+$0.45 (+1.03%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 6:30 PM ET

Prev close $43.70

AAP analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold14
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 23 analysts

Average $50.90 (+15.3% upside)

Low: $33.33
Now: $44.15
High: $73.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AAP analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$50.00 → $45.00	69%
Citigroup	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$57.00 → $45.00	44%
Goldman Sachs	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$54.00 → $40.00	59%
Truist Securities	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$62.00 → $43.00	100%
JP Morgan	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$65.00 → $55.00	64%
UBS	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$65.00 → $47.00	70%
Barclays	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$59.00 → $50.00	55%
Wells Fargo	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$60.00 → $50.00	57%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$65.00 → $52.00	61%
TD Cowen	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$61.00 → $45.00	54%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Advance Auto Parts is supported by a resilient professional channel that outperformed the weaker DIY business, with Pro comp growth remaining positive while DIY posted low-single-digit declines. The company’s operating model is also showing leverage, as adjusted gross margin reached 46.2% and operating margin expanded to 5.6% in 2Q, helped by merchandising initiatives, labor productivity, and a $26 million tariff refund that added about $0.31 to EPS. Even with 2H26 implied below consensus on margins, management still reiterated +1.0% to +2.0% comp sales guidance, expects gross margin in the 44%-45% range, and sees continued benefits from store and hub openings, a completed DC consolidation, and lower national-account drag.

Bear case

Advance Auto Parts is facing a difficult turnaround because weak comps, especially in DIY and lower-end customer segments, suggest demand remains pressured even after some 3Q improvement. The company’s margins are also under scrutiny: excluding $26 million of tariff refunds, 2Q gross margin would have been about 44.9%, EBIT margin roughly 4.3%, and EPS around $0.72, leaving little room for confidence given deleverage, mix shift, and higher fuel and supply-chain costs. After shares rose 44% YTD and now trade around 17.5x, the valuation already reflects optimism that a long-awaited margin recovery and share gains have yet to prove durable.

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