Arch Capital Group

ACGL · NASDAQ

$101.29+$0.81 (+0.81%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:33 PM ET

Prev close $100.48

ACGL analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 17 analysts over the last 12 months. 41% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold9
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 22 analysts

Average $113.70 (+12.3% upside)

Low: $95.95
Now: $101.29
High: $135.45

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ACGL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 13, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$105.00 → $100.00	49%
Wells Fargo	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$117.00 → $107.00	60%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$99.00 → $95.00	68%
JP Morgan	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$118.00 → $113.00	81%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$110.00 → $105.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$111.00 → $105.00	49%
Mizuho	Sep 16, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$104.00 → $100.00	58%
JP Morgan	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$116.00 → $118.00	81%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$99.00	68%
BMO Capital	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$95.00 → $102.00	63%

The case for and against

Updated Feb 2, 2026

Bull case

Arch Capital Group Ltd has demonstrated robust growth in its Insurance segment, particularly following the acquisition of Allianz's US MidCorp and Entertainment businesses, contributing to a strong top-line performance year-to-date. The Reinsurance unit has emerged as the largest segment by net written premiums, growing significantly from $1.9 billion in gross written premiums in 2018 to over $11 billion in 2024, aided by favorable market conditions. Additionally, Arch has benefited from a rise in net investment income due to increased global yields, positioning the company for continued growth in book value per share, anticipated to reach approximately $75 by year-end 2027, driven by strong operational earnings and significant capital generation.

Bear case

Arch Capital Group is facing significant challenges as evidenced by a 13.5% year-over-year decline in property premiums during the second quarter of 2025 and projected underwriting income declines of nearly 25% by 2027, leading to an overall estimated 18% deterioration in underwriting income contribution by fiscal year 2027. The expectations of modest deterioration in the combined ratio, in conjunction with a slowing growth outlook and heightened pricing competition, are anticipated to push the loss ratio into the low 60s over time. Additionally, key risks such as accelerating social inflation and potential large catastrophe losses pose further threats to the company's ability to maintain adequate reserves and protect its book value.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.