Acadia Healthcare

ACHC · NASDAQ

$31.43+$1.25 (+4.14%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $30.18

ACHC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 12 analysts over the last 12 months. 58% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold4
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 16 analysts

Average $34.46 (+9.6% upside)

Low: $17.17
Now: $31.43
High: $43.05

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ACHC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Leerink Partners	Sep 23, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$30.00 → $33.00	55%
Guggenheim	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$38.00 → $39.00	66%
Barclays	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$25.00 → $32.00	59%
Guggenheim	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$31.00 → $38.00	66%
TD Cowen	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$30.00 → $36.00	67%
Keybanc	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$30.00 → $40.00	61%
UBS	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$31.00 → $39.00	64%
Jefferies	Jun 3, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$24.50 → $30.00	63%
RBC Capital	May 4, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$28.00 → $31.00	57%
Guggenheim	May 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$26.00 → $31.00	66%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Acadia Healthcare Co is viewed positively because its core behavioral health platform is benefiting from strong demand, a diversified mix of high-value services, and an expanding footprint supported by bed additions, de novo development, and acquisitions. Recent estimates and guidance point to improving fundamentals, with 2026 EBITDA around $595M-$599.8MM, 2Q26 revenue of $842.7MM, and 2027 EBITDA raised to roughly $635M-$704M as ramping facilities and Florida DPP upside offset near-term denials and bad debt. The outlook is further supported by management’s renewed operational discipline, tighter G&A and capital allocation, and the expectation that legal, DOJ, and payer headwinds are isolated and manageable rather than broad-based.

Bear case

Acadia Healthcare Co is facing a deteriorating operating backdrop, with same-facility admissions improving but offset by specialty revenue declines, elevated payor denials, and a $3.7 million EBITDA drag from temporary center closures in 1Q26. Its negative outlook is further driven by difficult-to-underwrite legal liabilities, including the $28.6 million retroactive malpractice expense recorded in 2Q26 and ongoing investigations and headline risk tied to improper admission practices, all of which cloud valuation. Free cash flow also appears fragile because growth funding remains uncertain amid rising clinical costs, labor pressure, reimbursement risk, and execution challenges in de novo expansion and facility reorganization.

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