Ares Commercial Real Estate

ACRE · NYSE

$3.29−$0.03 (−0.90%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:54 PM ET

Prev close $3.32

ACRE analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 17% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold4
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $5.36 (+62.8% upside)

Low: $5.05
Now: $3.29
High: $5.78

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ACRE analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$5.50 → $4.50	51%
JP Morgan	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$5.50 → $5.00	56%
Citizens	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	—	26%
UBS	Jun 2, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$5.00 → $5.50	0%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$6.00 → $5.50	51%
JP Morgan	Apr 16, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$6.00 → $5.50	56%
Wells Fargo	Feb 12, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$4.00 → $5.00	56%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Feb 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$5.50 → $6.00	51%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Dec 15, 2025	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$4.75 → $5.50	51%
UBS	Nov 14, 2025	Maintains	Neutral	$4.50 → $5.00	38%

The case for and against

Updated Jan 26, 2026

Bull case

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp is positioned favorably due to an improving environment for increased loan originations, with the company identifying select opportunities within the commercial real estate sector. The anticipated strong demand for transitional and flexible capital among borrowers suggests a robust market outlook for the company’s specialty finance operations. Additionally, Ares's valuation at 0.74 times the peer average indicates potential attractiveness compared to its competitors, reinforcing a positive financial outlook.

Bear case

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp is facing a negative outlook primarily due to its exposure to credit risk associated with the loans it originates, which could significantly affect its earnings if there is weakening in commercial mortgage credit performance. Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment, particularly the impact of rising interest rates, is contributing to challenging conditions within the commercial mortgage REIT sector. Though estimates suggest a potential recovery in portfolio growth following a projected trough in run-off during the third quarter, the overall outlook remains cautious due to these underlying risks.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.