Adamas Trust

ADAM · NASDAQ

$7.53+$0.16 (+2.17%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:43 PM ET

Prev close $7.37

ADAM analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $9.94 (+32.1% upside)

Low: $9.60
Now: $7.53
High: $10.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ADAM analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Jones Trading	Sep 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$10.00	44%
Jones Trading	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$10.00	44%
Jones Trading	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$10.00	44%
Jones Trading	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$10.00	44%
UBS	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$8.50 → $9.50	0%
Jones Trading	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$9.50 → $10.00	44%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Feb 20, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$8.25 → $9.00	53%
Jones Trading	Feb 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$7.50 → $9.50	44%
B. Riley Securities	Jan 6, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$9.00	9%
Jones Trading	Oct 30, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$7.50	44%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Adamas Trust is well positioned for durable fundamental improvement because its $11.7B portfolio has grown 36% year over year across Agency RMBS, BPL-Rental, and legacy credit, while adjusted book value and EAD have both expanded through four consecutive quarters and nine of the last ten quarters, respectively. The company’s operating momentum is reinforced by $381.5mm of 2Q originations, $632.3mm of total BPL acquisitions, about $3mm of identified cost saves, and a 60bp reduction in financing costs since taking 100% control, all of which support stronger spread income and capital efficiency. Its dividend profile also looks increasingly secure, with the payout raised 17.4% to $0.27 and covered 111% by EAD, while legacy resolution and zero-delinquency exposure in multi-family/mezzanine assets create additional redeployment upside.

Bear case

Adamas Trust is vulnerable to a mix of macro and portfolio-specific risks that can erode earnings power and NAV, even with conservative financing. Its heavy emphasis on credit-sensitive investor assets, while avoiding non-QM owner-occupied paper, leaves performance exposed to worsening delinquencies, property-level NOI pressure, and broader residential and commercial real estate weakness, while the company itself warns that rising rates, widening mortgage spreads, and elevated prepayments can compress net interest margin. Although recourse leverage is 5.5x at the company and 5.2x at the portfolio with $400mm of excess liquidity and no corporate maturity before 2029, substantial debt, repurchase-funding dependence, derivative counterparty risk, and potential dilution from equity issuance make common shareholders highly sensitive to adverse market shocks.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.