Adobe

ADBE · NASDAQ

$256.73+$9.64 (+3.90%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $247.09

ADBE analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 31 analysts over the last 12 months. 19% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold20
Underperform4
Sell1

12-month price target · 35 analysts

Average $280.98 (+9.4% upside)

Low: $196.95
Now: $256.73
High: $406.98

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ADBE analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
HSBC	Oct 13, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	$310.00 → $267.00	64%
Wells Fargo	Oct 12, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Underweight	$270.00 → $225.00	49%
DA Davidson	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$250.00 → $290.00	51%
Citigroup	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$301.00 → $250.00	56%
JP Morgan	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$340.00 → $315.00	67%
Jefferies	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$285.00 → $275.00	60%
TD Cowen	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$245.00	60%
Evercore ISI Group	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$225.00 → $250.00	59%
Wells Fargo	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$250.00 → $270.00	49%
UBS	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$225.00 → $255.00	65%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Adobe is supported by resilient demand across its Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud businesses, where revenue guidance was raised to $26.601 billion at the midpoint and non-GAAP EPS to $24.48, implying 12% Y/Y revenue growth and 16.8% EPS growth in the updated full-year outlook. Strong AI and freemium traction, including AI-first ARR above $650M and growth of more than 150% Y/Y, suggests the company is successfully widening user adoption while expanding monetization through next-gen products like Firefly and Express. Management also highlighted durable profitability with ~44% expected non-GAAP operating margins and 10.2% total ending ARR growth, reinforcing the view that Adobe can combine growth, margin discipline, and recurring revenue durability.

Bear case

Adobe is facing a negative outlook because its core cloud-based subscription franchises—Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Adobe Experience Cloud—operate in intensely competitive markets where weak renewal performance or slower adoption of new technology could pressure future revenue and operating results. Guidance for FY/26 was raised for revenue and EPS, but total ARR growth was held at 10.2%, suggesting the business is not accelerating meaningfully, while Q4 expectations were lowered despite Q4 net-new ARR being implied at about $770M, or 66% of 2H net-new ARR. Margin pressure also remains a concern because the freemium model cost has not been offset by revenue, and acquisition integration risk adds another layer of execution uncertainty.

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