Automatic Data Processing

ADP · NASDAQ

$292.75+$5.72 (+1.99%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $287.03

ADP analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 11 analysts over the last 12 months. 27% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold6
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $291.40 (−0.5% downside)

Low: $227.25
Now: $292.75
High: $338.10

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ADP analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$310.00	49%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$295.00 → $310.00	49%
Citigroup	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$230.00 → $287.00	64%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$240.00 → $286.00	57%
Stifel	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$260.00 → $285.00	55%
Wells Fargo	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$248.00 → $283.00	49%
Guggenheim	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$270.00 → $300.00	100%
UBS	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$260.00 → $270.00	45%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$244.00 → $295.00	49%
Guggenheim	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$270.00	100%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Automatic Data Processing is supported by a durable recurring-revenue model, a compliance moat across 140 countries, and payroll infrastructure that is difficult to replicate, all of which are reinforced by its scale serving over 1.1 million clients and 42 million workers. The business appears well positioned to finish FY26 toward the high end of Employer Services guidance, with broad-based strength, stable hiring trends, and New ARR momentum suggesting revenue growth can remain resilient even in a choppy macro backdrop. Pricing realization, higher win rates from a flight to safety, improving Lyric and large-enterprise traction, and continued margin expansion from AI-driven productivity and client-funds income all support a constructive fundamental outlook.

Bear case

Automatic Data Processing is facing a less attractive setup because its FY26 Employer Services growth appears increasingly dependent on a strong F4Q26 booking outcome, yet the company’s wide 4%-7% bookings range highlights meaningful execution risk and volatility around whether large enterprise deals close by June. Even with supportive pricing, employment, and float revenue, rising healthcare premiums and mix pressure in PEO could lower margins, while management has already noted modest softening in PEO same-store hiring and outsized healthcare inflation. The stock’s fundamentals therefore look vulnerable if New ARR and retention slow, especially as analysts model FY27 PEO growth decelerating to 5.5% from 6.6% in FY26.

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