AES

AES · NYSE

$14.97+$0.01 (+0.07%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $14.96

AES analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 13% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $15.30 (+2.2% upside)

Low: $15.15
Now: $14.97
High: $15.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AES analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Barclays	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$12.00 → $16.00	51%
Susquehanna	Apr 9, 2026	Downgrade	Positive → Neutral	$16.00 → $15.00	49%
Argus Research	Mar 26, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	—	65%
Morgan Stanley	Mar 6, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$23.00 → $15.00	58%
Mizuho	Mar 3, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Neutral	$16.00 → $15.00	57%
Seaport Global	Feb 27, 2026	Upgrade	Sell → Neutral	—	58%
Morgan Stanley	Feb 20, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$24.00 → $23.00	58%
Barclays	Feb 4, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$15.00	51%
Jefferies	Feb 4, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$13.00 → $16.00	58%
JP Morgan	Jan 29, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$16.00 → $17.00	42%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2024

Bull case

AES has established a robust capital expenditure (capex) plan, recently increasing expectations by approximately 11%, which will enhance its energy infrastructure and facilitate the transition from coal to gas generation in its Petersburg units. The company’s diversified generation portfolio, composed of over 53% renewable energy, positions it well for future growth, projected to capture around 42% of EBITDA by 2027 due to increasing renewable demand and coal exits. Furthermore, with a significant portion of EBITDA derived from regulated utility operations, AES is on track to achieve a ~10% compound annual growth rate in its rate base, bolstering its financial stability and long-term growth prospects.

Bear case

The negative outlook on AES's stock is primarily driven by several fundamental risks, including the potential failure of new generation projects to achieve the expected returns on equity (ROEs) and the adverse impacts of geopolitical risks. The company faces challenges such as lower recontracting prices, disappointing performance from Fluence and Hydrogen joint ventures, and larger-than-anticipated write-offs from coal divestitures. Additionally, the diminishing favor of gas and LNG assets, combined with poor hydrology affecting its Colombian and Brazilian operations, further compounds concerns regarding AES's future profitability and growth potential.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.