Bull case
AGCO is positioned to benefit from a cyclical inflection because its core Europe/Middle East business, which produced about 66% of FY25 revenue and often 50%-100% of segment operating income, is showing healthier tractor retail sales, resilient dairy-linked demand, and improved pricing despite negative sentiment. The company’s competitive Fendt, Massey Ferguson, Valtra, and PTx portfolio, supported by a global dealer network of 3,000+ locations in 140+ countries, gives it both scale and a path to gain share in mixed fleets while expanding beyond Europe into the larger North and South American markets. Financially, management’s mid-cycle goal of 14%-15% operating margins by 2029, plus the expected rebound in North America and South America as crop incomes and inventories normalize, suggests meaningful earnings and free-cash-flow leverage from current trough-like conditions.