AAR

AIR · NYSE

$99.80+$1.21 (+1.23%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $98.59

AIR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $149.92 (+50.2% upside)

Low: $133.32
Now: $99.80
High: $168.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AIR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Jefferies	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$155.00 → $160.00	55%
RBC Capital	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$145.00	59%
Guggenheim	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	—	71%
Truist Securities	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$128.00 → $145.00	0%
Jefferies	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$150.00 → $155.00	55%
Keybanc	Jun 30, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Sector Weight	—	37%
Keybanc	Apr 9, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$120.00 → $132.00	37%
Jefferies	Mar 26, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$135.00 → $150.00	55%
RBC Capital	Mar 25, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$105.00 → $125.00	59%
Keybanc	Mar 25, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$109.00 → $120.00	37%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

AAR is positioned well because its FY26 exit momentum was strong, with 13% organic adjusted sales growth in 4Q26 led by 19% organic growth in new parts distribution, record component MRO activity, higher airframe MRO volumes, and rising Trax recurring revenue. Its 1Q27 guide calls for 21–23% total sales growth and 12.25–12.75% adjusted EBITDA margins excluding Legacy Commercial Programs, while the business mix is improving through new OEM agreements, capacity expansion, and a growing software-enabled aftermarket platform that supports share gains and margin expansion. Financially, leverage improved to 2.0x net debt/EBITDA with $816M of net debt and 24% full-year adjusted operating cash conversion, giving room for continued de-leveraging as working-capital efficiency and legacy wind-down visibility strengthen the fundamental story.

Bear case

AAR is facing a fundamental earnings overhang from its Legacy Commercial Programs, which generated $237M in FY26 sales but are expected to wind down over 3-4 years, creating a persistent drag as annual revenue steps down by about $60M and falls to just above $50M in FY29. Its downside case is also exposed to only 10% top-line growth through 2028, where slower commercial recovery or weaker government demand could leave adjusted EBITDA near $420M and compress valuation multiples, while the April 2025 OMB proposal to cut DoS funding by about $70M underscores government-program vulnerability. Despite diversification, the business remains highly sensitive to MRO spending, fleet utilization, and fixed-price contract risk, and investors are not awarding much credit for M&A optionality given the company’s track record and the current rate environment.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.