Allison Transmission Holdings

ALSN · NYSE

$109.66−$1.10 (−0.99%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:44 PM ET

Prev close $110.76

ALSN analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 57% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy3
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 12 analysts

Average $137.30 (+25.2% upside)

Low: $116.15
Now: $109.66
High: $155.29

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ALSN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 12, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$135.00	61%
JP Morgan	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$145.00 → $142.00	53%
Wells Fargo	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$137.00 → $120.00	54%
Freedom Broker	Oct 2, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$144.00	67%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$126.00 → $130.00	42%
Citigroup	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$135.00 → $125.00	61%
JP Morgan	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$140.00 → $145.00	53%
Morgan Stanley	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$117.00 → $126.00	42%
Wells Fargo	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$127.00 → $137.00	54%
Citigroup	Apr 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$130.00 → $135.00	61%

The case for and against

Updated Nov 29, 2024

Bull case

Allison Transmission reported a significant increase in gross profit and operating income, up 11% and 17% year-over-year, respectively, driven by price increases despite higher manufacturing expenses. The company's North American on-highway sales saw robust growth of 22% year-over-year, supported by demand for Class 8 vocational vehicles and continued price adjustments, while defense sales also showed strong momentum, rising 23% year-over-year. With management raising its fiscal year 2024 guidance and expectations for accelerated growth outside of North America, the favorable pricing dynamics and investments in international sales force position Allison Transmission for sustained financial performance.

Bear case

Allison Transmission faces significant headwinds, with a stark 89% year-over-year decline in North American off-highway sales attributed to reduced demand in the energy sector, and flat revenues in its outside North America off-highway segment driven by weaker performance in mining and construction. The company’s trailing net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.9x positions it at the higher end of the spectrum for its peer group, raising concerns about financial leverage amid declining revenues. Additionally, the volatility associated with economic conditions and potential cuts in defense spending could further weaken demand, compounded by risks related to high customer concentration and competition from rival transmission manufacturers.

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