Applied Materials

AMAT · NASDAQ

$404.98−$8.13 (−1.97%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $413.11

AMAT analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 29 analysts over the last 12 months. 90% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy26
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 39 analysts

Average $647.30 (+59.8% upside)

Low: $311.08
Now: $404.98
High: $945.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AMAT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Needham	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$740.00 → $580.00	58%
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$700.00 → $590.00	61%
RBC Capital	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$600.00	69%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$642.00 → $563.00	50%
UBS	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$675.00 → $695.00	69%
Mizuho	Aug 25, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$650.00 → $590.00	59%
Argus Research	Aug 18, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$500.00 → $600.00	60%
UBS	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$705.00 → $675.00	69%
Craig-Hallum	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$530.00 → $585.00	66%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$646.00 → $642.00	50%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Applied Materials is supported by a powerful mix of broad WFE exposure, leading share in deposition, and strong positioning in advanced logic, DRAM, HBM, and advanced packaging, which are the main growth engines in AI-led semiconductor spending. Revenue momentum remains robust, with 3QFY26 revenue of $9.1B, gross margin of 50.4%, and 4Q guidance of $10.25B well above consensus, while systems revenue is tracking toward roughly 40% growth in CY26 and AGS is expected to grow >20% in CY26. The outlook is further strengthened by unprecedented customer visibility into 2030, a planned doubling of manufacturing capacity by 2028, and the view that WFE remains early to mid-cycle with potential to expand toward $400B by 2030.

Bear case

Applied Materials is vulnerable to the semiconductor capex cycle, with revenues tied to global GDP, process-node transitions, and unpredictable customer ordering patterns that can quickly weaken equipment demand. Its outlook is further pressured by concentration in general-purpose logic and major customers such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, where foundry spending cuts, slower leading-edge demand, or reduced capex can materially hit sales and margins. China adds another layer of risk because it represents about 30% of revenue, so export controls, inventory corrections, or rising domestic competition could shrink the addressable market and delay purchases.

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