Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

AMBP · NYSE

$4.61−$0.01 (−0.22%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $4.62

AMBP analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 25% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $5.26 (+14.1% upside)

Low: $4.95
Now: $4.61
High: $6.30

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AMBP analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
UBS	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$5.00 → $4.50	49%
UBS	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$4.75 → $5.00	49%
Wells Fargo	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$4.00 → $5.00	51%
Citigroup	Apr 24, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$6.00 → $5.00	56%
UBS	Apr 10, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$4.75 → $4.25	49%
Wells Fargo	Mar 20, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$5.00 → $4.00	51%
Wells Fargo	Feb 27, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$4.00 → $5.00	51%
UBS	Jan 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$4.00 → $4.25	49%
Truist Securities	Jan 6, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$4.00 → $5.00	46%
UBS	Oct 24, 2025	Maintains	Neutral	$3.75 → $4.00	49%

The case for and against

Updated Aug 21, 2024

Bull case

Ardagh Metal Packaging is experiencing positive growth trends in both Brazil and North America, with Brazil volumes increasing by 34% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and North America volumes rising 8% year-over-year, supported by new customer contracts and favorable product mix. The company's outlook for 2024 suggests low single-digit shipment growth, anticipated improvements in fixed cost absorption, and a stabilization of pricing, indicating overall EBITDA growth potential despite heightened competition and energy costs. Demand has shown resilience at the start of 2024, fueled by customers adjusting their orders to take advantage of declining prices, which positions Ardagh Metal Packaging favorably for future performance.

Bear case

Ardagh Metal Packaging has experienced a 10% year-over-year volume decline in Europe, primarily due to accelerated destocking, which has impacted its shipments and overall performance. The company faces multiple downside risks, including lower-than-expected prices, rising input costs, and moderating beverage demand trends, all of which contribute to the negative outlook. Additionally, challenges such as increased competition, heightened operational costs from new plant start-ups, and weaker free cash flow have further strained the company's financial standing, raising concerns about its dividend coverage and capital return trends.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.