Ameresco

AMRC · NYSE

$18.75−$0.11 (−0.58%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:55 PM ET

Prev close $18.86

AMRC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 75% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $47.21 (+151.8% upside)

Low: $32.32
Now: $18.75
High: $86.23

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AMRC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 27, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$44.00 → $36.00	12%
Baird	Aug 18, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Neutral	$36.00 → $32.00	53%
UBS	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$28.00 → $32.00	45%
BNP Paribas	Aug 4, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Outperform	$34.00 → $40.00	48%
Canaccord Genuity	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$59.00 → $62.00	34%
Cantor Fitzgerald	May 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$41.00 → $45.00	12%
Canaccord Genuity	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00 → $59.00	34%
Baird	May 5, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$44.00 → $36.00	53%
UBS	Mar 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$40.00 → $28.00	45%
Stifel	Mar 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$37.00 → $38.00	51%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Ameresco is supported by a constructive long-term demand backdrop, as management reiterated double-digit backlog growth ambitions while citing strong activity across data centers, C&I battery storage, federal infrastructure upgrades, and broader power-infrastructure opportunities. The company’s data-center pipeline appears increasingly credible, with several awarded projects past early-stage development, three new 2Q awards spanning different states and partners, and potential scope expansion that could lift the five awarded projects toward about $2B in aggregate value. Financially, the business could see a larger revenue contribution in 2028-30E, with 2027E still modest, while strategic JV structures, $100M of direct proceeds from the Neogenyx closing, and a $293M 2027E EBITDA base case support a stronger scaling and cash-conversion profile.

Bear case

Ameresco is facing a more cautious near-term setup because FY26E EBITDA was cut to $264mn and EPS to $1.14 even as revenue only rose to $2.15bn, signaling weaker margin conversion and less operating leverage. Management’s tighter contract controls after SCE, plus milestone-based EPC revenue recognition, create added execution risk and quarterly volatility just as larger data-center projects increase complexity. The business also remains exposed to capital-intensive asset development, financing and tax-equity dependence, procurement and permitting delays, and roughly 20% federal revenue exposure that could be disrupted by budget negotiations.

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