Amentum Holdings

AMTM · NYSE

$19.87+$0.39 (+2.00%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:52 PM ET

Prev close $19.48

AMTM analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 40% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold6
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 14 analysts

Average $30.41 (+53.1% upside)

Low: $21.21
Now: $19.87
High: $42.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AMTM analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
BNP Paribas	Oct 6, 2026	Upgrade	Underperform → Neutral	$21.00 → $20.00	68%
JP Morgan	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$31.00 → $26.00	63%
RBC Capital	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$28.00 → $26.00	59%
UBS	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$23.00 → $24.00	49%
BTIG	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$35.00 → $30.00	32%
B of A Securities	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$35.00 → $30.00	58%
JP Morgan	May 26, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$34.00 → $31.00	63%
BNP Paribas	May 26, 2026	Initiates	Underperform	$22.00	68%
BTIG	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$35.00	32%
RBC Capital	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$35.00 → $28.00	59%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Amentum Holdings is attractive because its guidance cut appears driven by timing and mix, not demand weakness, while adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $1.115bn-$1.14bn and implied margin expanded to 8.1% at the midpoint. The company also delivered $290mn of adjusted EBITDA, $135mn of free cash flow, and a 3.0x net leverage ratio, showing that operational execution and deleveraging are improving even when revenue is pressured by divestitures and JV transitions. Its $48.2bn backlog, $17.7bn of net bookings, and exposure to higher-growth markets like nuclear, critical digital infrastructure, and defense support a durable long-term growth and margin expansion story.

Bear case

Amentum Holdings is facing a structurally cautious outlook because roughly 80% of revenues come from the U.S. government, leaving it exposed to budget delays, defense-spending pressure, contract protests, and shutdown risk. Even though the business has diversified program exposure and operates in attractive end markets, about 10-15% of revenues are up for recompete each year and ~23% of revenues are fixed-price, which heightens execution and margin risk if costs rise or awards slip. The stock’s nearly 40% decline from its all-time high and current 7.9x EV/EBITDA multiple reflect investor skepticism despite 2026 estimates implying stronger fundamentals.

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