Applied Digital

APLD · NASDAQ

$19.33+$0.08 (+0.42%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $19.25

APLD analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 13 analysts over the last 12 months. 85% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy11
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $69.26 (+258.3% upside)

Low: $37.88
Now: $19.33
High: $111.30

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

APLD analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$37.50 → $41.00	58%
Wells Fargo	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$50.00 → $55.00	43%
Freedom Capital Markets	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$48.00	0%
Needham	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$83.00 → $70.00	51%
UBS	Sep 23, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$38.00	44%
Rothschild & Co	Sep 21, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$22.00	62%
Wells Fargo	Sep 17, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$50.00	43%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$36.50 → $37.50	58%
B. Riley Securities	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$66.00 → $75.00	33%
Needham	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$83.00	51%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Applied Digital is well positioned because it is executing on contracted HPC capacity additions on time and on budget, with 250 MW of operating HPC capacity, 75 MW delivered to CoreWeave at Polaris Forge 1, and another 75 MW added after quarter-end. Its fundamentals are being reinforced by strong demand for AI infrastructure, long-duration lease economics, and improving financing terms, including $1.59B of senior secured notes at a 7.0% coupon versus 9.25% initially. Revenue momentum also supports the view, as F1Q27 revenue reached $341.9M and HPC base rental revenue of $65.8M and 89% NOI margin highlighted the quality of the ramp.

Bear case

Applied Digital is facing a fundamentally risky transition from a hosting business with uneven revenue quality to a capital-intensive AI infrastructure platform, and Q1’s $342M revenue was flattered by $184M of tenant fit-out services that are hard to predict. Even with $36B of contracted revenue and an expansion plan to 1.4 GW across 5 campuses, the company still faces construction delays, tight supply chains, permitting friction, and customer concentration risk, while also carrying 6.75% project debt and meaningful dilution from convertibles and warrants. The outlook is negative because higher cash SG&A is pressuring profitability, FY27 adjusted EBITDA was cut to $363.5M, and the aggressive multi-year rollout could disappoint if hyperscaler demand, financing, or execution weakens.

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