Applovin

APP · NASDAQ

$272.46+$3.34 (+1.24%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $269.12

APP analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 21 analysts over the last 12 months. 76% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy15
Hold5
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 32 analysts

Average $510.98 (+87.5% upside)

Low: $328.25
Now: $272.46
High: $829.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

APP analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$600.00 → $500.00	60%
Goldman Sachs	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$465.00 → $400.00	55%
Wedbush	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$610.00 → $560.00	56%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$450.00 → $400.00	52%
Oppenheimer	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$560.00 → $490.00	56%
Jefferies	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$550.00 → $375.00	41%
Needham	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$475.00	48%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$650.00 → $450.00	52%
BTIG	Sep 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$408.00 → $396.00	39%
Evercore ISI Group	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$630.00 → $510.00	20%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

AppLovin is supported by a vertically integrated ad stack that monetizes both demand and supply, with roughly 80% of revenue from AppDiscovery and the rest from Max, giving it multiple paths to capture advertising spend. The central fundamental catalyst is Axon 2, whose return-threshold optimization should improve advertiser ROI, expand spend from existing customers, and help accelerate the emerging consumer segment beyond gaming, where the company is already proven. Recent tracker data also reinforces the thesis: pixel users rose from 10k to 20k in less than a month, pixel count grew 34% over 5 weeks, and three quality advertisers, including Steve Madden, Quince, and Thorne, suggest broader adoption that could scale over time.

Bear case

AppLovin is viewed negatively because its apparent growth in ecommerce advertising looks increasingly low quality, with Store Leads attributing the surge to a few Hong Kong-based drop shippers and the analyst’s own pixel tracker showing only +0.7% over the same period, suggesting weak true spend breadth. The firm’s core risk is that ROAS may fail to keep pace with rising advertiser demand, causing return revenue to stall while growth becomes more reliant on mobile gaming, which narrows platform scale and compresses the multiple; this view also led to cuts in 2026 revenue and EBITDA to $8.009B/$6.723B and 2027 to $9.851B/$8.200B. Although Axon 2 and the ongoing hybrid recsys/LLM transition could eventually improve conversion, the process began in early 2026 and remains several quarters from a clear unlock, with potential gross-margin pressure in the meantime and lower cohort ARPU estimates of $53K versus $112K previously.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.