Ares Capital

ARCC · NASDAQ

$18.51+$0.10 (+0.54%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $18.41

ARCC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 71% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 15 analysts

Average $21.17 (+14.3% upside)

Low: $19.19
Now: $18.51
High: $24.15

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ARCC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
UBS	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$19.00 → $21.00	100%
Truist Securities	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$22.00 → $21.00	63%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$21.00 → $20.00	36%
JP Morgan	Jul 2, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$19.00 → $18.50	56%
Wells Fargo	Jun 12, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$20.00 → $19.00	50%
RBC Capital	Apr 29, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$22.00 → $21.00	29%
Truist Securities	Apr 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$23.00 → $22.00	63%
Citizens	Apr 22, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$23.00 → $22.00	33%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Apr 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$22.00 → $21.00	36%
UBS	Mar 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$21.00 → $19.00	100%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Ares Capital is favored for its scale, market-leading BDC platform, and access to the broader Ares Credit Group, which support strong underwriting, direct origination, and portfolio management. Its quarter showed solid fundamentals with $763mn of investment income, a 10.3% weighted-average yield, $29.50bn of fair value investments, and $3.25bn of gross commitments, while committed revolvers across 40 banks add funding flexibility. Although non-accruals rose to 2.1%, the portfolio appears resilient, with software exposure largely low risk and average LTV around 41%, reinforcing confidence in above-peer ROE potential and dividend durability.

Bear case

Ares Capital is facing a softer earnings backdrop, as 1Q26 core EPS of $0.47 missed estimates and GAAP net income per share fell to $0.13 on unrealized losses, while NAV per share declined 1.8% sequentially to $19.59 amid spread widening. Rising non-accruals to 2.1% and a slight increase in lower-rated assets to about 5% of the portfolio suggest credit quality is weakening at the margin, even if levels remain below historical averages. With 2026 core EPS trimmed to $1.89 due to lower leverage, weaker fee income, and higher funding costs, the outlook is pressured by NII compression, leverage risk, and the possibility that current dividends may only barely match long-term earnings power.

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