Alliance Resource Partners LP

ARLP · NASDAQ

$25.63−$0.07 (−0.27%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $25.70

ARLP analyst rating

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The case for and against

Updated Oct 19, 2025

Bull case

Alliance Resource Partners LP has shown a robust performance outlook, highlighted by an increase in full-year sales guidance by 0.5 million tons, primarily due to anticipated growth in shipments from the Illinois Basin. The company expects an 8% to 12% quarter-over-quarter increase in sales, demonstrating resilience and effective management in addressing previous shipment delays. Additionally, Alliance Resource Partners successfully contracted 17.7 million tons for the years 2025 to 2028, achieving a 96% commitment for 2025, which underscores the company's strong market position and demand for its products.

Bear case

Alliance Resource Partners LP is experiencing a decline in adjusted EBITDA estimates, with a reduction of $4 million for the second quarter, bringing the total estimate down to $170 million. This downward revision is reflective of a broader trend, as the full-year adjusted EBITDA estimate has been lowered to $702 million from a prior estimate of $710 million. Contributing factors include higher-than-anticipated expenses per ton, driven by lower recovery rates and challenging mining conditions, particularly due to a longwall move at the Tunnel Ridge complex.

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