Arm Holdings

ARM · NASDAQ

$210.33+$0.23 (+0.11%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $210.10

ARM analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 25 analysts over the last 12 months. 72% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy18
Hold6
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 41 analysts

Average $292.68 (+39.2% upside)

Low: $126.25
Now: $210.33
High: $504.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ARM analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Rosenblatt	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$270.00 → $250.00	53%
UBS	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$360.00 → $320.00	68%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$202.00 → $212.00	61%
RBC Capital	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$475.00 → $340.00	71%
TD Cowen	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$475.00 → $350.00	55%
Wells Fargo	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$350.00 → $280.00	56%
Guggenheim	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$255.00	58%
Needham	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$255.00	55%
Wells Fargo	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$410.00 → $350.00	56%
Susquehanna	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Positive	$300.00 → $320.00	67%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

ARM Holdings is well positioned by its dominant architecture footprint in smartphones and its expanding share in data center, where royalty revenue rose 11% year over year to $671 million and cloud AI/data center royalties more than doubled. Licensing is also accelerating, with revenue up 29% to $819 million and annualized contract value up 22%, while more than $2 billion of AGI CPU demand across fiscal 2027 and 2028 signals a meaningful new growth engine. Even though supply constraints are limiting near-term upside, the combination of 20%+ royalty growth, CSS adoption, hyperscaler share gains, and the launch of its own CPU products supports a strong fundamental outlook.

Bear case

ARM Holdings is challenged by several fundamental headwinds that can cap the durability of its royalty growth despite its dominant smartphone CPU position. Slower adoption of ARMv9 and CSS threatens the step-up in royalty rates, while roughly 20% of sales tied to Arm China face licensing and export-control risk, and emerging RISC-V adoption could gradually erode share. Even with 1QF27 revenue guided to $1.26B at the midpoint and royalties and licensing both expected to rise about 20% Y/Y, 3nm wafer capacity constraints, elevated gross-margin pressure, and the prospect of SoftBank’s ~90% ownership creating overhang keep the outlook negative.

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