Arxis

ARXS · NASDAQ

$52.14−$1.58 (−2.94%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $53.72

ARXS analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $62.09 (+19.1% upside)

Low: $50.50
Now: $52.14
High: $70.35

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ARXS analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 2, 2026	Upgrade	Sector Perform → Outperform	$50.00 → $60.00	59%
Citigroup	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$61.00 → $67.00	27%
Wells Fargo	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$52.00 → $63.00	69%
Citigroup	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$54.00 → $61.00	27%
RBC Capital	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$46.00 → $50.00	59%
Citigroup	Jul 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00 → $54.00	27%
Citigroup	Jun 2, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$42.00 → $50.00	27%
Wells Fargo	Jun 1, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$42.00 → $52.00	69%
Morgan Stanley	Jun 1, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$44.00 → $50.00	61%
RBC Capital	May 29, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$39.00 → $46.00	59%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Arxis is well positioned for outperformance because it has already delivered strong post-IPO execution, including five acquisitions, 17% organic growth in 1Q26 and 21% in 2Q26, while beating revenue and EBITDA expectations. Its outlook is reinforced by durable pricing power from a ~90% proprietary portfolio, limited LTA exposure, and a merchant-supplier role in defense that should support MSD pricing as supply-chain resiliency and second-sourcing trends intensify. With net debt of $1.2B, just 1.8x leverage, and an estimated 2028E EBITDA of $1,131M, the company has ample capacity for more value-accretive M&A, while Omnetics adds scale and supports a path toward stronger margins.

Bear case

Arxis is viewed negatively because its growth case relies on a modest ~LDD organic framework that already assumes LSD–MSD pricing, ~MSD volume growth, and only ~LSD new-business wins, while the real upside depends on uncertain M&A timing and better-than-expected contract awards. The lack of LTAs on 85% to 90% of revenue creates about 5% annual business roll-off, so the company must constantly replace lost work just to sustain the base, despite defense budget tailwinds and ~8% annual commercial OEM delivery growth through 2030. Even in the more challenged scenarios, revenue only reaches $2.1B to $2.25B through 2028 with adj. EBITDA of roughly $814M to $880M, underscoring that slower defense sales, OEM ramp headwinds, and political uncertainty could materially pressure fundamentals.

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