ASML Holding NV

ASML · NYSE

$1,571.80+$11.26 (+0.72%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $1,560.54

ASML analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 88% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 39 analysts

Average $2,368.49 (+50.7% upside)

Low: $1,460.15
Now: $1,571.80
High: $3,241.02

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ASML analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$2,400.00 → $2,350.00	71%
JP Morgan	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$2,200.00 → $2,400.00	71%
Wells Fargo	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$2,200.00 → $2,500.00	66%
RBC Capital	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$2,000.00 → $2,100.00	71%
RBC Capital	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$1,700.00 → $2,000.00	71%
Bernstein	Jul 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$1,971.00 → $2,623.00	47%
B of A Securities	Jun 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$2,268.00 → $2,345.00	50%
Wells Fargo	Jun 22, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,750.00 → $2,200.00	66%
JP Morgan	Jun 3, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,813.00 → $2,200.00	71%
Wells Fargo	Apr 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,650.00 → $1,750.00	66%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

ASML Holding is supported by its dominant ~90% lithography market share, entrenched relationships with TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron, and a demand backdrop that is being lifted by GenAI, advanced logic, and tight DRAM/HBM supply. Management’s raised FY26 revenue guidance to €43-45B, Q3 revenue of €11.0-12.0B, and gross margin tracking at 55-57% signal both top-line acceleration and better profitability, while Services revenue of €2.8B and 54% gross margin highlight mix benefits. Visibility also improved as Low-NA EUV guidance rose to ~65 units in FY26 and capacity is being expanded into 2027 and 2028, reinforcing a view that secular EUV adoption, pricing flexibility, and strong backlog can sustain momentum.

Bear case

ASML Holding is facing a fundamentally weaker demand backdrop as leading-edge spending at TSMC and Samsung slows, Intel cuts capex further, and fab cleanroom shortages delay or cancel equipment orders. China is a major vulnerability because it represents 20% of Systems revenue, and additional export controls or a worse-than-expected inventory correction could materially reduce sales just as management expects China to decline significantly in 2026. Despite ASML’s 90% market share and occasional revenue beats, the stock has shown elevated short interest and recent post-earnings volatility, while downside valuation assumptions imply meaningful multiple compression if these risks persist.

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