Astrana Health

ASTH · NASDAQ

$38.58+$1.68 (+4.55%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $36.90

ASTH analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 12 analysts

Average $51.82 (+34.3% upside)

Low: $41.41
Now: $38.58
High: $68.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ASTH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Freedom Capital Markets	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00	64%
Oppenheimer	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$53.00	56%
Truist Securities	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$47.00 → $55.00	37%
Barclays	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$50.00 → $53.00	59%
TD Cowen	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00 → $50.00	67%
BTIG	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00 → $65.00	63%
BTIG	Jun 2, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00	46%
Barclays	May 26, 2026	Upgrade	Equal-Weight → Overweight	$37.00 → $50.00	59%
Truist Securities	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$38.00 → $47.00	37%
TD Cowen	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$35.00 → $45.00	67%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Astrana Health is positioned to benefit from a value-based care model that aligns payer, physician, and patient incentives, with 100% of its 8 ACOs generating shared savings in PY 2024 and $120.4M in gross shared savings, while managing about 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries. Its payer-agnostic platform, 12k+ contracted physicians, and capital-light growth strategy support recurring revenue and scalable expansion, and its ability to shift more members into higher-risk arrangements should improve earnings as Medicare reimbursement rises in 2027. The outlook is also reinforced by improving operating leverage, including G&A margin declining from 7.1% in 1Q:25 to 6.4% in 1Q:26, alongside evidence that core medical trend was about 4%, indicating disciplined cost control and strong care coordination.

Bear case

Astrana Health is facing a fragile fundamental setup because the reported 2025 pro forma revenue decline of 3.5% and just $1.2M of GAAP net income suggest thin earnings quality, while much of the apparent weakness reflects distressed Prospect operations rather than clean organic strength. Even if legacy revenue excluding Prospect grew 15% on a constant-entity basis in Q1 2026 and ACO REACH savings were solid at about 8.4% with a ~75% quality score, the business remains exposed to reimbursement pressure, regulatory change, and payer-dependent revenue concentration, with Medicaid estimated at ~24% of total revenue. The September 22 cybersecurity incident also highlights operational and governance risk, and the recently disclosed $545M affiliate loan with annual dividend coverage of roughly $26M versus about $54.5M of interest underscores balance-sheet and capital-allocation concerns.

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