AEVEX

AVEX · NYSE

$14.34−$0.15 (−1.04%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $14.49

AVEX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 89% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $33.53 (+133.8% upside)

Low: $20.20
Now: $14.34
High: $47.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AVEX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$31.00 → $26.00	59%
Jefferies	Sep 23, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$26.00	55%
Piper Sandler	Sep 2, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$20.00	41%
Needham	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00	16%
JP Morgan	May 26, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$33.00 → $35.00	63%
Needham	May 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00	16%
Jefferies	May 12, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$32.00	55%
JP Morgan	May 12, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$33.00	63%
B of A Securities	May 12, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$34.00	57%
Needham	May 12, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$45.00	16%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

AEVEX is supported by a formidable moat built on battle-proven unmanned systems, with 9,000 units delivered to Ukraine and roughly $1.2B in revenues tied to that demand, while recent 1Q26 and 2Q26 results showed revenue surging to $216.7M and $201.8M alongside adjusted EBITDA margins expanding to 16.8% and 13.9%. Its outlook is strengthened by accelerating non-Ukraine orders, including $175M in 3Q26 funded activity and about $260M in total bookings, plus a robust pipeline around launched effects, one-way attack systems, and long-range precision strike programs. The pending BlackSea acquisition adds an estimated $150M in 2026 revenue, maritime autonomy capabilities, and a second growth vector, while 2026 guidance of $700M-$720M in revenue and $105M-$111.5M in adjusted EBITDA reinforces confidence in scaling profitability.

Bear case

AEVEX is viewed cautiously because much of its recent growth has been tied to Ukraine-related demand, and management itself acknowledges a wind-down that could create near-term volatility and revenue mix pressure. Although 2Q25 revenue surged 99.5% year over year to $201.8M and adjusted EBITDA reached $28.1M, the quarter also showed a sequential backlog decline to $259.8M and margin sensitivity to higher Ukraine-related costs. The bearish case centers on lumpy defense procurement, contract-timing risk, M&A integration friction, and execution risks in supply chain, scaling, and program wins, which could compress multiples if non-Ukraine demand ramps more slowly.

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