AXT

AXTI · NASDAQ

$57.09+$0.30 (+0.53%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $56.79

AXTI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 67% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $83.23 (+45.8% upside)

Low: $40.40
Now: $57.09
High: $131.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AXTI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
B. Riley Securities	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$52.00 → $55.00	61%
Needham	Jul 31, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$90.00	58%
B. Riley Securities	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$73.00 → $52.00	61%
Wedbush	May 1, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$80.00 → $93.00	72%
Wedbush	Apr 29, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$28.00 → $80.00	72%
B. Riley Securities	Feb 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$18.00 → $21.00	61%
Wedbush	Feb 20, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$8.50 → $28.00	72%
Needham	Jan 20, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	—	58%
B. Riley Securities	Jan 9, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	$9.00 → $18.00	61%
B. Riley Securities	Oct 31, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$4.00 → $9.00	61%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

AXT is viewed positively because its revenue growth is being led by Indium Phosphide, with Q1 InP sales of $13.6M up 70% Q/Q and 258% Y/Y, while total revenue rose 17% Q/Q to $26.9M and gross margin expanded to 29.9% from 21.5% in Q4. The company’s record InP backlog of over $100M, expected largest-ever InP quarter in Q2, and guidance for about $34M in revenue with a return to profitability suggest demand is outpacing current supply and that export-license approvals could unlock further upside. Supportive fundamentals also include capacity expansion that is running ahead of plan, a target to double InP capacity from 4Q25 levels by year-end 2026, and strong exposure to rapidly growing data center, AI, and optical interconnect markets, especially in China and Asia Pacific, which generated 78% of Q1 revenue.

Bear case

AXT is facing a negative fundamental setup because near-term demand and pricing trends are uneven: Ge revenue was only $0.2M in Q1, roughly flat sequentially and down sharply year over year, while raw material sales still made up about 28% of total revenues versus a 5-year average of 25%, underscoring reliance on a lower-quality mix. At the same time, inventory rose to $90.2M from $81.7M as production ramps, cash and investments slipped to $123M, and opex increased to $8.6M non-GAAP and $9.6M GAAP, suggesting scaling costs are outrunning operating leverage. Although 2026E estimates imply revenue of $135.8M and 33.1% gross margin, execution risk remains high from the proposed Tongmei IPO, possible customer delays or substitution away from AXTI materials, and potential bottlenecks in InP supply.

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