Blue Bird

BLBD · NASDAQ

$57.37+$1.65 (+2.96%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $55.72

BLBD analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $90.61 (+57.9% upside)

Low: $82.82
Now: $57.37
High: $99.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

BLBD analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
DA Davidson	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$86.00 → $91.00	54%
Needham	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$86.00	33%
BTIG	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$80.00 → $95.00	45%
Barclays	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$75.00 → $85.00	39%
Roth Capital	Jun 25, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$94.00	31%
DA Davidson	Jun 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$86.00	54%
Barclays	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$55.00 → $75.00	39%
Needham	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$78.00 → $86.00	33%
BTIG	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$65.00 → $80.00	45%
Freedom Broker	Feb 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$67.00 → $72.00	40%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Blue Bird is benefiting from a market-leading, roughly one-third share of the North American school bus market, a strong brand, and long-standing dealer relationships that support demand, servicing, and recurring parts sales. Management execution has been solid, with adjusted EBITDA of $71.4 million and revenue of $517.2 million both ahead of expectations, while FY:26 guidance was raised to $1.740 billion-$1.760 billion in revenue and $245 million-$250 million in EBITDA. The outlook is further strengthened by a higher-margin mix shift toward alternative-powered buses, expected EBITDA margin expansion from about 15% in FY2025 to 16% by FY2027, and the Ford chassis deal that expands the TAM by about $1.4 billion and could add roughly 20% to EBITDA by 2030.

Bear case

Blue Bird is pressured by its heavy dependence on school-district and government spending, leaving demand exposed to property-tax weakness, delayed funding, and shifting state emission mandates that could slow alternative-powered bus orders. Competitive threats are intensifying, especially in EV buses, where larger rivals and start-ups may bring superior technology and pricing, while virtual learning, safety incidents, and warranty or quality issues could further erode sales and reputation. Financially, management expects FY2026 revenue of about $1.8B and FY2026 EBITDA of roughly $249M, but margin compression from ~13.6% in FY2024 to the mid- to high-single-digit range by FY2026 suggests worsening profitability and limited downside protection.

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