Bloomin' Brands

BLMN · NASDAQ

$10.34+$0.39 (+3.92%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:56 PM ET

Prev close $9.95

BLMN analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 13% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 12 analysts

Average $12.08 (+16.8% upside)

Low: $8.89
Now: $10.34
High: $15.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

BLMN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Freedom Capital Markets	Oct 2, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.00	71%
JP Morgan	Sep 29, 2026	Upgrade	Underweight → Neutral	$6.00 → $13.00	64%
Freedom Capital Markets	Sep 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.00	71%
Piper Sandler	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$9.00 → $12.00	64%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$8.00 → $12.00	59%
Citigroup	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$9.50 → $8.75	57%
UBS	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$6.00 → $9.00	47%
Citigroup	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$6.75 → $9.50	57%
Goldman Sachs	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$6.00 → $8.50	46%
Barclays	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$7.00 → $9.00	55%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Bloomin Brands is benefiting from a credible turnaround as improved product quality, upgraded service, and new leadership across all four brands are starting to gain traction, with management seeing Outback traffic and same-store sales improve over coming months. The core Outback remodel and steak upgrade initiative is supporting higher guest scores above 90% top-box, while technology upgrades and a restructured compensation model are improving table turns, retention, and operating efficiency. Financially, the company is trading at about 4.3x NTM consensus EBITDA, capex is running around $190 million, and net leverage has fallen to 3.7x in 2Q26, while Bonefish, Carrabba’s, and Fleming’s continue to post positive comps.

Bear case

Bloomin Brands is facing a challenged fundamental backdrop as macro and consumer softness are pressuring traffic and average check, while persistent inflation in beef and labor threatens margins across its casual and polished-casual concepts. The outlook is further weakened by execution risk around Outback’s steak, service, and remodel initiatives, with closures and productivity savings potentially failing to offset underperforming units, limiting the company’s ability to stabilize results. Elevated leverage and covenant risk, international and FX exposure tied to Brazil, intense casual-dining competition, and technology or cyber issues add downside, while broader equity-market multiple compression or impairments could further cap valuation even if operations improve.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.