Caseys General Stores

CASY · NASDAQ

$684.51−$9.22 (−1.33%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:46 PM ET

Prev close $693.73

CASY analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 80% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy12
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 22 analysts

Average $802.20 (+17.2% upside)

Low: $707.00
Now: $684.51
High: $979.65

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CASY analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 15, 2026	Upgrade	Sector Perform → Outperform	$910.00 → $825.00	63%
Evercore ISI Group	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$880.00 → $775.00	60%
Raymond James	Sep 10, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$750.00	61%
UBS	Sep 10, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$925.00 → $720.00	64%
Keybanc	Sep 10, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$970.00 → $780.00	40%
Wells Fargo	Sep 9, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$960.00 → $750.00	60%
RBC Capital	Sep 9, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$913.00 → $910.00	63%
Stephens & Co.	Sep 9, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$975.00	76%
JP Morgan	Sep 3, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$975.00 → $833.00	40%
UBS	Aug 27, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$945.00 → $925.00	64%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Casey's General Stores is well positioned because its differentiated “Convenience QSR” model keeps taking share through stronger prepared food execution, with Prepared Foods & Dispensed Beverage comps up 4.8%, whole pie units growing double digits, and wings lifting prepared food purchases by about 30%. Its fundamentals are reinforced by record inside margins of 42.2%, F1Q adjusted EPS of $7.37 up 27.8% and EBITDA of $485.1M up 17.1%, while fuel gallons stayed resilient versus a weak industry backdrop and total liquidity remained about $1.4B. Management’s three-year plan adds visibility, targeting 8-10% EBITDA CAGR through FY29, at least 400 new stores, and roughly $2B of free cash flow, supporting further margin expansion and operating leverage.

Bear case

Casey's General Stores is facing a weaker fundamental setup as inside sales slowed sequentially and same-store fuel gallons turned negative for the first time in seven quarters, signaling softer traffic and potential pressure on discretionary spending if fuel prices stay elevated. Although fuel margin improved to 47.8 CPG in F1Q27 and total fuel gross profit rose to $446.9M, management’s mix of lower-40s fuel margins and the risk that F4Q26/F1Q27 were peak improvement quarters suggests tougher comparisons ahead. The company also remains exposed to volatile oil prices, intense competition, EV adoption, regulatory pressure, and Midwest ag-economy sensitivity, while inside comps of +3.2% and grocery comps of +2.7% both came in below consensus.

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