Commerce Bancshares

CBSH · NASDAQ

$55.58+$0.47 (+0.85%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $55.11

CBSH analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 10% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold9
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $66.87 (+20.3% upside)

Low: $60.60
Now: $55.58
High: $80.85

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CBSH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Piper Sandler	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$66.00 → $63.00	72%
Wells Fargo	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$63.00 → $61.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$76.00 → $77.00	59%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 8, 2026	Upgrade	Equal-Weight → Overweight	$65.00 → $76.00	59%
Wells Fargo	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$57.00 → $63.00	62%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$60.00 → $62.00	66%
Piper Sandler	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$59.00 → $66.00	72%
Stephens & Co.	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$62.00 → $64.00	73%
TD Cowen	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$63.00 → $60.00	47%
Stephens & Co.	Jul 15, 2026	Initiates	Equal-Weight	$62.00	73%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Commerce Bancshares is supported by improving core earnings power, with 2Q26 core EPS of $1.13 beating estimates as higher net interest income, stronger fees, and lower provisioning offset modest expense pressure. Its balance sheet actions also look favorable, as the company completed a ~$0.9B AFS securities repositioning, lifted securities yields by 40 bps to 3.37%, and expects stable deposit costs alongside continued core NIM expansion after the 18 bps quarterly NIM increase to 3.77%. Credit quality remains pristine with nonaccruals near 0.06% of loans and net charge-offs at 19 bps, while strong buybacks and expected loan, card, and wealth momentum should further support shareholder returns and earnings growth.

Bear case

Commerce Bancshares is facing a negative setup because deposit trends are deteriorating faster than loan growth is improving, with average loans up 3.5% annually and PE loans up 7% annually, while average deposits fell 2.0% annually and PE deposits dropped 7% annually. The decline in EOP savings, interest checking, and money market balances by about $550 million quarter over quarter points to funding pressure that could weigh on net interest income, especially if the yield curve and rates remain unfavorable. At the same time, credit risk, capital and liquidity requirements, regulation, and intense competition create multiple paths for earnings and returns to weaken if loan growth slows or the economy softens.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.