Certara

CERT · NASDAQ

$9.79+$0.335 (+3.54%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:38 PM ET

Prev close $9.45

CERT analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 11 analysts over the last 12 months. 45% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold6
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $8.66 (−11.5% downside)

Low: $7.07
Now: $9.79
High: $10.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CERT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Keybanc	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$9.00 → $12.00	35%
TD Cowen	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$9.00 → $11.00	68%
Barclays	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$7.50 → $9.00	54%
UBS	Sep 30, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	$10.00	70%
Barclays	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$6.50 → $7.50	54%
Craig-Hallum	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$10.00 → $8.00	57%
BMO Capital	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$7.00 → $6.00	41%
Barclays	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$8.00 → $6.50	54%
Stephens & Co.	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$10.00 → $9.00	34%
Morgan Stanley	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$11.00 → $10.00	47%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Certara is positioned favorably because its differentiated biosimulation software and tech-enabled services help drug developers reduce clinical trials, speed regulatory approval, and improve patient access, creating durable demand as end markets benefit from regulatory tailwinds and increased AI budgets. In 1Q26, software revenue rose 7.2% year over year to $49.7M, software bookings increased 20% year over year, and net revenue retention reached 106%, signaling improving recurring revenue quality and a healthier core MIDD franchise after the R&MW divestiture. With stronger visibility in software, better margins expected in 2H26, and an improving strategic profile that supports consistency into FY27, the company appears set up for more durable growth and margin expansion.

Bear case

Certara is facing a skeptical market because the expected benefits from the R&MW divestiture were modest, while FY26 guidance is now more heavily weighted to 2H across software, services, and margins, leaving little near-term proof for investors. Management’s continued investment in AI/MIDD platform initiatives and the new CEO’s longer-duration plans are pressuring profitability, with 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $31.7M down 7.6% y/y and margin at 29.7%, near the low end of the 30%–32% range. Estimate cuts for FY26 to $395M revenue and $119M adjusted EBITDA, and for FY27 to $399M revenue and $128M adjusted EBITDA, underscore slower growth, a weaker services outlook, and inconsistent software/services execution.

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