Chefs' Warehouse

CHEF · NASDAQ

$110.88−$0.40 (−0.36%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $111.28

CHEF analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 83% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $125.61 (+13.3% upside)

Low: $105.04
Now: $110.88
High: $138.95

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CHEF analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$104.00 → $120.00	48%
TD Cowen	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$123.00 → $131.00	33%
UBS	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$114.00 → $125.00	64%
Benchmark	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$106.00 → $125.00	38%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$97.00 → $104.00	48%
BTIG	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $125.00	53%
TD Cowen	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$110.00 → $123.00	33%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 15, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$83.00 → $97.00	48%
Benchmark	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$90.00 → $106.00	38%
TD Cowen	Jul 7, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$110.00	33%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

The Chefs' Warehouse is viewed favorably because it is executing ahead of its March 2025 investor-day framework, with management now considering 2030 targets as soon as 3Q26 and a model that points to about $6.2B in revenue and $465M in adjusted EBITDA. Its appeal rests on durable high-income demand, a 90,000+ SKU moat, and a differentiated mix of high-end restaurants, luxury hotels, and clubs that supports a forecast 2025-28 revenue CAGR of roughly 8% and EBITDA CAGR near 13%. Margin upside is reinforced by distribution-center consolidation, technology and AI-driven efficiencies, and operating leverage, with recent results showing 10.4% organic sales growth, 24.3% gross margin, and 1Q26 net leverage falling to 1.9x.

Bear case

The Chefs' Warehouse is facing a negative setup because its growth is exposed to volatile restaurant demand, fuel inflation, and concentrated leadership and overhead, all of which can create operating deleverage if case volume weakens or cost pass-through lags. The acquisition of Chef Middle East adds roughly 6% of 2025 revenue exposure, and the Middle East conflict is already creating a ~50 bps drag on 1Q26 organic growth, with business running at about 75% of prior-year levels in April and a projected $37M 2026E revenue headwind. Although distribution-center consolidation has improved adj. SG&A/Gross Profit to 84.2% in 2025 from 85.5% in 2023, further margin gains remain at risk if savings stall or geopolitical and diesel cost pressures offset them.

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