Clearwater Paper

CLW · NYSE

$19.29+$0.25 (+1.31%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $19.04

CLW analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 33% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 5 analysts

Average $22.18 (+15.0% upside)

Low: $20.20
Now: $19.29
High: $26.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CLW analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$21.00 → $23.00	31%
B of A Securities	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$24.00 → $25.00	53%
Truist Securities	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$12.00 → $17.00	47%
B of A Securities	Jul 2, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$19.00	53%
RBC Capital	Apr 29, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$20.00 → $19.00	31%
Truist Securities	Apr 29, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$15.00 → $12.00	47%
Truist Securities	Apr 15, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$16.00 → $15.00	47%
RBC Capital	Feb 20, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$25.00 → $23.00	31%
Truist Securities	Feb 19, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$21.00 → $16.00	47%
Truist Securities	Jan 20, 2026	Initiates	Hold	$21.00	47%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Clearwater Paper is positioned favorably because it is pushing through targeted May price increases of $60/ton on about 70k tons of extruded products while benefiting from strong demand and sold-out backlogs, which should help offset elevated poly coating and other input costs. Its outlook is further supported by expected 5% sequentially higher paperboard shipments, unchanged 2026 revenue guidance of $1.4-1.5Bn, and about $20MM of working capital improvement that can aid liquidity, which stood near $407mn. The company’s Cypress Bend restructuring, including roughly 20% salaried and hourly role reductions and about $8-12mn of annualized cost savings, along with a sustainability-focused SBS portfolio and potential $50mn of additional insurance proceeds, strengthens the long-term fundamental case.

Bear case

Clearwater Paper is facing a weak fundamental setup because leverage and refinancing risk are rising as $275MM of notes and a $79MM ABL facility approach current status, while S&P cut the rating to B+ in January 2026 and Moody’s to B1 earlier this month. Although Q126 adjusted EBITDA was slightly positive at $1.9MM, sales volumes of ~303k tons missed expectations and management guided 2Q26 EBITDA to $0 to -$10MM due to a $22-24MM maintenance outage and $5-7MM of higher input costs, implying earnings pressure will persist. The outlook is further constrained by exposure to SBS supply-demand imbalance, imports, and concentration risk, since 46% of 2025 sales came from the top 10 customers and the company is only a small player in a highly competitive paperboard market.

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