Cogent Biosciences

COGT · NASDAQ

$31.24+$1.23 (+4.10%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $30.01

COGT analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 78% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $56.30 (+80.2% upside)

Low: $45.45
Now: $31.24
High: $63.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

COGT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wedbush	Sep 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$55.00	46%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Sep 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$55.00	41%
Piper Sandler	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$52.00 → $55.00	51%
Guggenheim	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00 → $52.00	62%
Wedbush	May 29, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$55.00	46%
HC Wainwright & Co.	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$52.00 → $55.00	41%
Wedbush	Mar 17, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$55.00	46%
Jefferies	Mar 16, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$55.00	58%
Piper Sandler	Feb 18, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$39.00 → $52.00	51%
Wedbush	Jan 21, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$55.00	46%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Cogent Biosciences is viewed favorably because bezuclastinib is advancing through three FDA reviews for KIT-driven diseases, creating multiple near-term catalysts in 2L GIST, NonAdvSM, and AdvSM. Its clinical profile appears compelling, with APEX showing a 54% ORR, 24% CR/CRh, and deep biomarker reductions, while 12-month PFS and OS rates of 79% and 87% support durability and differentiation versus competing KIT inhibitors. Financially, the company ended 2Q with $792.3M in cash, or $865.9M pro forma, providing runway into late 2028 and supporting launch readiness, which strengthens the case for meaningful commercial upside.

Bear case

Cogent Biosciences is viewed negatively because its value case depends heavily on bezuclastinib and CGT9486 producing strong clinical data, yet the main near-term risk is poorer-than-expected results that could reduce market penetration, delay approval, or block approval altogether. The outlook is also pressured by meaningful regulatory, commercial, and competitive risks, including the emergence of better-than-expected competitor products and setbacks in later-stage trials or earlier-stage candidates. Despite a DCF framework assuming 95% probability of approval in advanced systemic mastocytosis, 95% in non-advanced systemic mastocytosis, and 90% in 2L GIST, the model still carries a 10% discount rate, a 29% effective tax rate, and long-term dilution risk that can erode returns.

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