Collegium Pharmaceutical

COLL · NASDAQ

$23.23+$0.22 (+0.96%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $23.01

COLL analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 86% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 10 analysts

Average $49.98 (+115.2% upside)

Low: $43.43
Now: $23.23
High: $63.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

COLL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Oppenheimer	Sep 23, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$50.00	59%
Truist Securities	Sep 9, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$58.00 → $49.00	0%
Leerink Partners	Sep 9, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$45.00	58%
Barclays	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$56.00 → $48.00	53%
Piper Sandler	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$45.00 → $43.00	68%
Needham	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$56.00 → $46.00	53%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Mar 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$60.00	36%
Needham	Mar 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$54.00 → $56.00	53%
Needham	Feb 26, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$56.00 → $54.00	53%
Barclays	Jan 9, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$58.00 → $56.00	53%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Collegium Pharmaceutical is viewed favorably because its pain franchise continues to generate meaningful cash flow while the company’s ADHD portfolio is becoming the clearer growth engine, supporting share repurchases and business development. Jornay PM delivered 2Q26 net revenue of $46.1M, up 41% YoY, and management now expects $190M-$200M in 2026 sales, while Azstarys adds a complementary second ADHD asset with 2026 guidance of $65M-$75M and longer exclusivity through 2037. The outlook is also supported by the view that the market is overestimating near-term pain erosion, with Belbuca generic entry seen as less imminent and Xtampza ER still contributing substantial revenue despite pressure.

Bear case

Collegium Pharmaceutical is viewed cautiously because its core pain franchise faces structural erosion from shrinking branded opioid volumes, generic pressure, and reimbursement friction, with Nucynta revenue already down 24% YoY in 2Q26 and management cutting 2026 total revenue guidance to $825M-$855M from $865M-$895M. Belbuca appears vulnerable later than the market may expect, but even without a 2027 generic launch, the company remains exposed to long-term patent expiry in 2032 and to uncertainty around Teva’s willingness to reenter opioids. Although Jornay PM and the ADHD portfolio offer growth visibility, the stock’s 5x EV/EBITDA valuation reflects skepticism about whether that growth can offset ongoing pain-franchise decay and higher operating spending.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.