ConocoPhillips

COP · NYSE

$145.95+$0.71 (+0.49%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $145.24

COP analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 19 analysts over the last 12 months. 68% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy13
Hold5
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 28 analysts

Average $149.10 (+2.2% upside)

Low: $120.53
Now: $145.95
High: $198.45

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

COP analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Susquehanna	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Positive	$161.00 → $175.00	49%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$151.00 → $159.00	66%
Jefferies	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$159.00 → $174.00	58%
Truist Securities	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$130.00 → $136.00	63%
UBS	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$153.00 → $169.00	55%
Seaport Global	Sep 3, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	—	67%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$147.00 → $151.00	66%
Argus Research	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$136.00 → $153.00	59%
Barclays	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$155.00 → $150.00	53%
UBS	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$143.00 → $153.00	55%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

ConocoPhillips is supported by a high-quality, geographically diversified upstream portfolio anchored in the Permian, Alaska, Montney, EMEA, APAC, and attractive LNG equity interests, which underpins resilient cash generation and scale. Operational execution is strong, with Permian volumes reaching a record 920 MBoe/d in 2Q and 1H underlying Permian growth of 10% y/y, while lower-48 technology initiatives are improving recovery and capital efficiency through longer laterals and higher productivity. Financially, the company is positioned to generate estimated 4Q26 EBITDAX of $10.30bn and FCF of $4.62bn, while returning $12.08bn in FY26 capital to shareholders, reinforcing the bullish fundamental case.

Bear case

ConocoPhillips is exposed to a highly cyclical upstream market where commodity-price swings and geopolitics can rapidly erode profitability, making cash flows and sentiment unstable. Its 2Q shareholder returns of $3.02Bn and 1H ROC of $5.05Bn, about 40% of CFO, still fell below the company’s 45% annual target, implying heavier buybacks in 2H26 just to maintain capital return discipline. On top of that, LNG and power demand remain uncertain if AI/data center buildout or basin takeaway capacity disappoints, which could keep natural gas prices low and pressure development plans and future cash generation.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.