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CTO Realty Growth

CTO · NYSE

$20.27+$0.25 (+1.25%)TodayMarket closed ·
Prev close $20.02

CTO analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 2 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.
  • Strong buy0
  • Buy2
  • Hold0
  • Underperform0
  • Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $24.99 (+23.3% upside)

Low
$24.24
Now
$20.27
High
$26.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CTO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
FirmDateActionRating
Jones TradingOct 1, 2026MaintainsBuy
Cantor FitzgeraldAug 3, 2026MaintainsOverweight
Jones TradingJul 29, 2026MaintainsBuy
Cantor FitzgeraldApr 30, 2026MaintainsOverweight
Jones TradingApr 29, 2026MaintainsBuy
Jones TradingFeb 24, 2026MaintainsBuy
Jones TradingOct 29, 2025MaintainsBuy

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

CTO Realty Growth is supported by a stronger balance sheet after closing a $1.0B amended and restated unsecured credit facility, which pushed the nearest maturity to Sep 2029 and increased total commitments by $250mm. Its core portfolio remains healthy, with 95.4% leased properties and expected same-property NOI growth of 3.5%-4.5% in 2026, while recent capital deployment and a $75M preferred equity investment at a 12% initial cash yield have lifted AFFO guidance to roughly $2.22 at the midpoint. The company also benefits from disciplined asset recycling, a robust leasing pipeline, and outparcel opportunities that should drive additional growth, all while the stock trades at a significant 9x AFFO multiple discount to the sector average.

Bear case

CTO Realty Growth is facing a negative fundamental outlook because its distributions depend heavily on successful acquisitions, financing, tenant selection, and lease negotiations, leaving cash generation vulnerable to execution risk. The company also carries leverage risk, as changes in short-term interest rates on borrowings or preferred shares could reduce returns to common shareholders and make dividend payments more volatile. Although it has $156.6mm committed YTD across 2 investments and a 7.7% yield, reliance on asset sales like Madison Yards, a ~$30% discount to the $27.43 1Q26 NAV estimate, and uncertainty around deploying proceeds underscores a fragile, rate-sensitive profile.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.