CoreCivic

CXW · NYSE

$30.34+$0.44 (+1.47%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $29.90

CXW analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 6 analysts

Average $42.64 (+40.5% upside)

Low: $40.40
Now: $30.34
High: $47.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CXW analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Jones Trading	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$42.00	44%
Benchmark	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$41.00 → $45.00	51%
Jones Trading	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$30.00 → $42.00	44%
Jones Trading	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$30.00	44%
Noble Capital Markets	Jul 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$28.00 → $35.00	55%
Benchmark	Jul 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$36.00 → $41.00	51%
Benchmark	Jun 26, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$28.00 → $36.00	51%
Benchmark	Mar 24, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$28.00	51%
Jones Trading	Feb 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$30.00	44%
Jones Trading	Nov 7, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$30.00	44%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

CoreCivic is benefiting from a transformational DHS monetization program that has already delivered four facility sales totaling 7,187 beds for about $2.2 billion gross, or roughly $307,000 per bed, while leaving management contracts intact and preserving CPI-linked economics. The company has used about $608.5 million of proceeds to repay debt, retire its bank credit facility and remaining 4.75% notes due October 2027, and it now has significant capacity for buybacks with $755.8 million remaining on authorization and about $500 million of cash still on hand. With DHS still committed to turnkey capacity, discussions on additional purchases only recently begun, and FY26 guidance still implying Adjusted EBITDA of $440.5-445.5 million, the balance-sheet de-risking and recurring contract base support a favorable long-term view.

Bear case

CoreCivic is facing a fundamentally fragile earnings base because most revenue still depends on a small set of government contracts that can be canceled with 60- or 120-day notice, while political backlash, criminal justice reform, ESG pressure, and legal liability can all impair renewals and expansion. Financially, the stock’s forward Adjusted EBITDA multiple has compressed from about 9x to about 7x despite a doubled share price, and 2Q revenue of $684.9mm beat the model but Adjusted EBITDA missed by $3.3mm as Services mix diluted margins, with consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin falling to 16.0% from 17.9% in 1Q26. The outlook is further weakened by capital allocation tension, since asset sales create cash but also close trading windows for repurchases, while public sector appropriations risk and California’s gross receipts tax add additional uncertainty to future cash flow durability.

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