Bull case
Brinker International is positioned for durable growth because Chili’s has rebuilt brand relevance through effective marketing, value messaging, and menu innovation, attracting about 40 million more annual customer visits over the past two years to 239 million in FY26 while average weekly guests still remain below the historical peak. Management also sees a long runway for operating leverage, with average AUVs near $5 million, roughly 20% of restaurants above $6 million generating margins about 400 bps higher than the system average, and guidance for 20-40 bps of annual restaurant-level margin expansion. In addition, the company is restarting meaningful unit growth toward 30 annual openings by FY29 across more than 300 identified U.S. trade areas, with new units expected to produce >18% restaurant-level margins and 18-20% cash-on-cash returns.