Elastic NV

ESTC · NYSE

$95.63+$1.03 (+1.09%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $94.60

ESTC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 27 analysts over the last 12 months. 70% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy19
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 28 analysts

Average $110.86 (+15.9% upside)

Low: $64.74
Now: $95.63
High: $136.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ESTC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wedbush	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$125.00	63%
Stifel	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$107.00 → $120.00	60%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Sep 23, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$100.00	55%
Wedbush	Sep 11, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$125.00	63%
Scotiabank	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$58.00 → $84.00	54%
Wells Fargo	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$80.00 → $100.00	56%
UBS	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$85.00 → $105.00	73%
TD Cowen	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$70.00 → $95.00	78%
Citigroup	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$104.00 → $128.00	56%
Stifel	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$90.00 → $107.00	60%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Elastic is well positioned because its single platform lets customers consolidate logs, metrics, traces, security, and search while preserving full context across AI-heavy workflows, reducing duplicated storage, license, and query costs. Its newest products deepen that value proposition: Metrics improves storage efficiency and query speed, Nightshift automates root-cause analysis, AlertZero compresses thousands of security alerts into actionable decisions, and the Context Engine and vector-plus-keyword search support lower-token, more accurate AI querying. Fundamentally, the business is showing healthy demand and execution, with total revenue of $478M up 15% y/y, sales-led subscription revenue up 18% y/y to $399M, cRPO up 21% to $1.153B, and adjusted free cash flow of $143M, while AI use cases now reach 37% of >$100K ACV customers.

Bear case

Elastic is facing a weaker fundamental setup as slower Elastic Cloud consumption, macro-driven demand softness, and competition from other vendors can pressure growth and make it harder to sustain its open-source monetization model. Its non-GAAP gross margin fell to 76.6% in F1Q27 from 78.7% in the prior-year period and 77.5% last quarter, while cloud mix shift continues to compress margins despite management’s longer-term serverless scale benefits. The decline in net expansion rate to 111% from 112% also signals softer customer spend momentum, and the company’s own lowered long-term guide adds to concerns that decelerating revenue trends may persist.

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