Floor & Decor Holdings

FND · NYSE

$45.21+$1.22 (+2.77%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:41 PM ET

Prev close $43.99

FND analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 17 analysts over the last 12 months. 29% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold12
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 24 analysts

Average $59.74 (+32.1% upside)

Low: $38.38
Now: $45.21
High: $78.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FND analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Jefferies	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$59.00 → $47.00	—
Wells Fargo	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$55.00 → $45.00	57%
Citigroup	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$59.00 → $49.00	44%
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$55.00 → $50.00	69%
Evercore ISI Group	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$60.00 → $55.00	69%
UBS	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$55.00 → $60.00	70%
Telsey Advisory Group	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$61.00 → $68.00	51%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$56.00 → $64.00	61%
Wells Fargo	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$50.00 → $55.00	57%
Piper Sandler	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$70.00 → $72.00	59%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Floor & Decor Hldgs is viewed favorably because its scale and supply-chain advantages support share gains in a fragmented $47bn hard-surface flooring market, even as near-term demand remains pressured by macro conditions. Despite revenue declining 0.7% year over year to $1.152bn and comps falling 3.7%, gross margin still improved 25bps to 44.0% thanks to strong cost control and a 86bps core gross margin increase after opening two new DCs. The stock also appears attractive at 9.9x 2026E EBITDA versus peers near 13.1x, while management’s reset guidance for 2025 and expected cost leverage in 2026 leave room for recovery in revenue, margins, and EBITDA.

Bear case

Floor & Decor Hldgs is facing a weakening demand backdrop, with comps declining 3.7% and management cutting FY comps guidance to (4%) to flat, signaling that recovery assumptions may be too optimistic. The core Laminate & Vinyl category remains under pressure from oversupply and pricing actions, while transactions fell 5.5% and market share declined 24 bps Y/Y, pointing to softer customer traffic and trading down toward smaller projects. Although gross margin reached 44.0% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 10.5%, SG&A deleverage, weaker new store productivity, and a $49.758mm Spartan revenue decline suggest operating leverage is deteriorating and execution risk remains elevated.

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