GFL Environmental

GFL · TORONTO

$45.56+$1.42 (+3.22%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:49 PM ET

Prev close $44.14

GFL analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 78% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold1
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 17 analysts

Average $50.65 (+11.2% upside)

Low: $36.64
Now: $45.56
High: $67.22

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

GFL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Oct 21, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$41.00 → $42.00	54%
Wolfe Research	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$77.00	58%
TD Cowen	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$65.00	67%
Scotiabank	Sep 2, 2026	Maintains	Sector Outperform	$56.00 → $57.00	72%
Barclays	Sep 2, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$58.00	33%
Scotiabank	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Sector Outperform	$52.00 → $56.00	72%
JP Morgan	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$40.00 → $41.00	54%
JP Morgan	Jul 6, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$42.00 → $40.00	54%
Scotiabank	May 4, 2026	Maintains	Sector Outperform	$56.00 → $52.00	72%
Citigroup	Apr 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$55.00 → $51.00	73%

The case for and against

Updated Aug 4, 2026

Bull case

GFL Environmental is well-positioned for growth due to its strong position in the environmental services industry, with its solid waste management business generating the majority of the revenue and its environmental services business showing potential for growth. The company's strategic focus on cost efficiency and margin expansion, combined with its long M&A runway, provide a positive outlook for its future performance. Additionally, GFL's diverse workforce and commitment to sustainability initiatives enhance its overall competitive advantage in the industry.

Bear case

GFL Environmental is a fourth-largest player in a highly attractive solid waste management industry, providing essential services through long-term contracts with high visibility and benefiting from barriers to entry and regional oligopolies. Its growth strategy includes price-led organic growth, M&A, and sustainability initiatives, with 20% of executive compensation tied to ESG goals. However, FX headwinds and uncertain macro conditions could affect growth, and the company's decision to switch to US GAAP accounting in the future may help narrow the valuation gap to peers but could also create additional risks. While the stock is currently trading at an attractive multiple of 13x EV/EBITDA compared to its peers, the negative outlook is based on potential near-to-medium term challenges and risks, including potential slowdowns in M&A activity and macroeconomic uncertainty, which could hinder the company's growth and profitability prospects.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.