Grocery Outlet Holding

GO · NASDAQ

$13.02+$0.23 (+1.80%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:35 PM ET

Prev close $12.79

GO analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 10% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 16 analysts

Average $11.02 (−15.3% downside)

Low: $6.06
Now: $13.02
High: $15.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

GO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
B of A Securities	Sep 30, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$12.50 → $15.00	62%
UBS	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$10.00 → $11.50	64%
DA Davidson	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$9.00 → $12.00	62%
Telsey Advisory Group	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$9.00 → $12.00	51%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$7.00 → $11.00	61%
Wells Fargo	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$9.00 → $11.00	60%
DA Davidson	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$7.00 → $9.00	62%
TD Cowen	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$6.00 → $8.00	51%
Wells Fargo	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$7.00 → $9.00	60%
DA Davidson	Mar 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$11.00 → $7.00	62%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Grocery Outlet Holding is viewed favorably because its operating performance is being supported by tight Manhattan fundamentals, with committed occupancy at 99.6%, total occupancy at 95.8%, and average monthly rent rising to $6,981, up 1.5% quarter over quarter. The company’s Class A portfolio in Upper East Side and Midtown East benefits from a high-income tenant base, while management’s localized expertise, internalized structure, and meaningful equity ownership create a disciplined operating advantage. Its valuation case is further strengthened by expected NOI growth, about $15 million of annualized synergies, and a manageable debt profile with day-one debt to EBITDA just below 10x, despite leverage remaining a key risk.

Bear case

Grocery Outlet Holding is viewed negatively because higher G&A expense is pressuring FFO estimates, while the company’s valuation framework already assumes meaningful discounting from forward NAV due to dilution and deal risk. Its pro forma NAV falls to $14.50, and the reported Q2/26 book value of $22.76 sits atop a cap-rate-sensitive base that could weaken further if cap rates expand and NOI underperforms. The outlook is further clouded by execution risk tied to the HR portfolio acquisition, strategic drift, and leverage sensitivity amid challenged cost of capital and interest rate fluctuations.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.