Guardian Pharmacy Services

GRDN · NYSE

$41.87+$1.73 (+4.31%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $40.14

GRDN analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $50.85 (+21.5% upside)

Low: $47.47
Now: $41.87
High: $54.60

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

GRDN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Keybanc	Sep 23, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$52.00	0%
Truist Securities	Sep 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$47.00 → $51.00	67%
Oppenheimer	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$43.00 → $49.00	56%
Truist Securities	Jun 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$43.00 → $47.00	67%
B of A Securities	Jun 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$42.00 → $47.00	58%
Oppenheimer	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$38.00 → $43.00	56%
B of A Securities	Apr 27, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$42.00	58%
Truist Securities	Apr 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$38.00 → $43.00	67%
Jefferies	Mar 30, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$44.00	63%
Oppenheimer	Mar 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$35.00 → $38.00	56%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Guardian Pharmacy Service is a differentiated leader in a fragmented long-term care pharmacy market, with 13% national share and a model purpose-built for assisted living facilities, where its scale, local service, and technology-driven clinical tools create a moat versus smaller, less profitable peers. Its outlook is strengthened by durable secular demand as baby boomers age into ALFs, plus multi-pronged organic growth from higher resident adoption, new account wins, and greenfield expansion, supported by 2024 and 2025 pharmacy cohorts that could add a 3-4% EBITDA tailwind in 2027 and 2028. In addition, the IRA and Omnicare bankruptcy may accelerate accretive M&A, and the company’s strong balance sheet—about $90M of cash, no debt, and an untapped $40M revolver—supports continued consolidation and execution.

Bear case

Guardian Pharmacy Service is facing structural margin pressure as LTC pharmacies have historically relied on branded drugs for most profitability despite those drugs representing only about 10% of volume, while generic dispensing remains roughly breakeven. The IRA’s maximum fair price framework can leave reimbursement below acquisition cost even after manufacturer true-ups, creating persistent compression in spreads and limiting upside in a business dependent on pharmaceutical product sales. Its outlook is further weakened by heavy regulatory exposure to Medicare and Medicaid, PBM and reimbursement changes, labor shortages, supply-chain disruption, and integration risk across acquired facilities and IT assets.

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