HCA Healthcare

HCA · NYSE

$465.75+$10.87 (+2.39%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:56 PM ET

Prev close $454.88

HCA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 22 analysts over the last 12 months. 68% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy15
Hold6
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 24 analysts

Average $465.13 (−0.1% downside)

Low: $383.80
Now: $465.75
High: $607.95

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

HCA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$431.00 → $460.00	67%
RBC Capital	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$435.00 → $496.00	57%
BMO Capital	Sep 23, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$495.00	41%
Leerink Partners	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$492.00	55%
RBC Capital	Sep 8, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$435.00	57%
JP Morgan	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$490.00 → $425.00	71%
Wells Fargo	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$369.00 → $381.00	59%
Goldman Sachs	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$558.00 → $485.00	64%
Mizuho	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$525.00 → $475.00	69%
UBS	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$635.00 → $579.00	64%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

HCA Healthcare is favorably positioned because its unmatched scale as the largest integrated U.S. hospital system, with 190 hospitals and more than 2,500 outpatient facilities, supports durable market share, pricing leverage, and operating efficiency across high-growth markets. Management’s resilience program, spanning revenue integrity, asset optimization, variable costs, and fixed costs, should help offset the $1.2 billion exchange headwind for full-year 2026 and drive sequential cost improvement, while the $5.0–$5.5 billion 2026 CapEx plan reinforces capacity, technology, and outpatient growth. With adjusted EBITDA expected to grow at or above the long-term 4–6% target and ample balance-sheet flexibility for buybacks, capex, and M&A, the company appears well equipped to compound value despite near-term HIX and Medicaid turbulence.

Bear case

HCA Healthcare is facing a weaker fundamental setup as same-store revenue growth is cut to +0.5% and 2026 adjusted EBITDA is lowered to $15.75 billion, reflecting softer hospital volume, mix pressure, and lingering HIX-related headwinds that now appear closer to $1.3 billion. Its profitability outlook is also constrained by persistent staffing costs, professional fees, and supply inflation, while reimbursement from government and managed care payors continues to lag, limiting margin expansion despite a large hospital footprint and market leadership. The negative view is reinforced by execution risk around revised core growth expectations, regulatory uncertainty, and the possibility that elevated contract labor and lower surgical activity keep earnings momentum below historical ranges.

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