Herc Holdings

HRI · NYSE

$125.38+$0.92 (+0.74%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $124.46

HRI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 86% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 14 analysts

Average $186.16 (+48.5% upside)

Low: $136.35
Now: $125.38
High: $231.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

HRI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$175.00 → $150.00	61%
Wells Fargo	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$218.00 → $176.00	54%
JP Morgan	Sep 10, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Overweight	$165.00 → $175.00	53%
Wells Fargo	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$176.00 → $218.00	54%
BNP Paribas	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$160.00 → $165.00	65%
Keybanc	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$165.00 → $185.00	77%
Citigroup	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$155.00 → $175.00	61%
JP Morgan	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$140.00 → $165.00	53%
BNP Paribas	Jun 29, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$160.00	65%
Citigroup	Apr 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$135.00 → $155.00	61%

The case for and against

Updated Aug 14, 2024

Bull case

Herc Holdings reported a rental revenue of $765 million, reflecting an approximately 8% year-over-year increase, with a notable 26% rise in EBITDA to $419 million when excluding the impact of the entertainment sector. The company's strategic emphasis on long-term rentals and a broadening catalog of specialty items positions it to capitalize on ongoing demand and infrastructure opportunities, especially with federal spending on megaprojects anticipated to rise. Furthermore, the healthy REBITDA margins of 49.3% and 51%, along with robust demand across diverse end markets, indicate a resilient and expanding operational framework that supports a positive financial outlook for Herc Holdings.

Bear case

Herc Holdings is facing a challenging outlook as it has issued initial 2024 guidance indicating a slow start to its updated three-year plan, with anticipated equipment rental revenue growth only in the range of 7-10% and a significant reduction in net rental capital expenditures, which are projected to be approximately 40% lower year-over-year. The company operates in a contracting environment, as evidenced by the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) being in negative territory for five consecutive months, suggesting ongoing softness in business conditions, particularly in industrial spending. Furthermore, the persistent challenges in the Studio Entertainment segment, compounded by an ongoing actors' strike, have adversely affected EBITDA margins and overall revenue, culminating in a lowered total revenue guidance for 2024.

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