Hilltop Holdings

HTH · NYSE

$36.71+$0.45 (+1.24%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $36.26

HTH analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold2
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 4 analysts

Average $42.50 (+15.8% upside)

Low: $41.41
Now: $36.71
High: $44.10

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

HTH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Raymond James	Oct 6, 2026	Downgrade	Market Perform → Underperform	—	61%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$40.00 → $42.00	79%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Feb 3, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$34.00 → $39.00	79%
Stephens & Co.	Oct 27, 2025	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$35.00 → $36.00	63%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 19, 2025

Bull case

Hilltop Holdings Inc. demonstrated a solid financial footing, as indicated by the increase in tangible common equity to total assets (TCE/TA), which rose to 12.4% from 12.0%, reflecting effective capital management despite share buybacks. The net interest margin (NIM) showcased notable growth, improving by 11 basis points to 2.86%, surpassing the initial estimate of 2.75%. Additionally, this improvement in NIM is expected to provide an approximately 1% accretive effect to the tangible book value (TBV), further strengthening the company's financial position.

Bear case

Hilltop Holdings Inc. has lowered its loan growth outlook to 0-3%, a significant reduction from the previous forecast range of 2-5%, suggesting potential challenges in expanding its lending portfolio. This negative adjustment is compounded by persistent headwinds from the higher-for-longer interest rate environment, which adversely affects the company's mortgage, fixed income, and structured finance operations, resulting in underperformance in fee income. Consequently, these factors indicate a struggling revenue generation capability, particularly affecting the company’s banking and broker-dealer segments, which primarily rely on consistent loan growth and robust fee structures.

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